Dear Capitolisters,

Here’s hoping you had a great Independence Day. Due to the holiday and some forthcoming business travel (yet again!), I’m going to revisit an issue—supply chain stress—that we’ve hit a few times in the past but not recently. So today I’m going to ditch my typically sunny optimism and look at three potential dark clouds on the horizon for U.S. supply chains, and thus the U.S. economy. The most frustrating part? They were all avoidable.

Supply Chain Chaos Is Cooling (a Little) 

Throughout June, we were treated to good news on the supply chain front, with various indicators showing declines from last year’s all-time peaks of supply chain stress and even some improvement since the Russian invasion began. For example, here’s the New York Fed’s global supply chain pressure index through May (the June update will come later this week):